🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.