How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.