Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
